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Bad and discredited ideas, it seems, never die.
Neither do they fade away. Instead, they
keep turning up, like bad pennies or Godzilla in the old Japanese
movies.
Price controls, that is, the fixing of prices below
the market level, have been tried since
ancient Rome; in the French Revolution, in its notorious "Law of the
Maximum" that was
responsible for most of the victims of the guillotine; in the Soviet
Union, ruthlessly trying to
suppress black markets. In every age, in every culture, price controls
have never worked. They
have always been a disaster.
Why did Chiang-kai-Shek "lose" China? The main
reason is never mentioned. Because
he engaged in runaway inflation, and then tried to suppress the results
through price controls. To
enforce them, he wound up shooting merchants in the public
squares of Shanghai to
make an example of them. He thereby lost his last shreds of support to
the insurgent Communist
forces. A similar fate awaited the South Vietnamese regime, which began
shooting merchants in
the public squares of Saigon to enforce its price decrees.
Price controls didn't work in World War I, when
they began as "selective"; they didn't
work in World War II, when they were comprehensive and the Office of
Price Administration
tried to enforce them with hundreds of thousands of enforcers. They
didn't work when President
Nixon imposed a wage-price freeze and variants of such a freeze from
the summer of 1971 until
the spring of 1973 or when President Carter tried to enforce a more
selective version.
The first thing I ever wrote was an unpublished
memo for the New York Republican Club
denouncing President Truman's price controls on meat. I was a young
graduate student in
economics at Columbia University, fresh from my M.A., and I wrote the
piece for the Republican
campaign of 1946. Price controls, I, and countless economists before
and since, pointed out,
never work; they don't check inflation, they only create shortages,
rationing, declines in quality,
black markets, and terrible economic distortions. Furthermore, they get
worse as time goes on, as
the economy adjusts out from under these pernicious controls.
In 1946, all federal price controls had been lifted
except on meat, and as a result, meat
was in increasingly short supply. It got so bad that no meat could be
found, and diabetics could
not even find insulin, a meat-derived product. Radio disk jockeys
implored their listeners to write
to their Congressmen urging them to keep price controls on meat, for if
not the price would
triple, quadruple, who knows, rise to infinity. (Ignored was the
question: what's so great for the
consumers about cheap meat that no one can find?)
Finally, in summer, President Truman went on the
air in a nationwide radio address.
Summing up the dire meat crisis, he said, in effect, that he had
seriously considered nationalizing
the Chicago meatpackers in order to commandeer hoarded meat. But then
he realized that the
meat-packers had no meat either. Then, in a remarkable revelation that
few commented on, he
disclosed that he had given serious consideration to mobilizing the
National Guard
and
the Army, and sending troops into Midwestern farms to seize all their
chickens and livestock. But
then, he reluctantly added, he had decided that such a course was
"impractical."
Impractical? A nice euphemism. Sending troops into
the farms, Truman would have had a
revolution on his hands. Every farmer would have been out there with a
gun, defending his
precious land and property from a despotic invader. Besides, it was a
Congressional election
year, and the Democrats were already in deep trouble in the farm
states. As it was, the Old Right
Republicans swept both houses of Congress that year in a landslide, and
on the slogan: "controls,
corruption, and Communism." It was the last principled stand of right-wing Republicanism, and,
not coincidentally, its last political victory.
Truman reluctantly concluded that there seemed to
be only one course left to him: to
abolish the price controls on meat, which he proceeded to do. In a
couple of days there was
plenty of meat for consumers and the diabetic alike. The meat crisis
was over. Prices? They did
not, of course, go up to infinity. They rose by something like 20% from
the unrealistic control
level.
The most remarkable part of this affair went
unremarked: that President Truman,
apparently without knowing it, had conceded the crucial point: that the
"shortage" was, pure and
simple, an artificial creation of his own price controls. How else
interpret the fact that even he
admitted that the last, unfortunate resort to end the crisis was to
abolish the controls? And yet, no
one drew this lesson and so no one initiated impeachment proceedings.
Twenty-five years later, President Nixon imposed a
price-wage freeze because inflation
had reached what was then an "unacceptable" level of 4.5 % a year. I
went ballistic, denouncing
the controls everywhere I could. That winter, I debated Presidential
economic adviser Herbert
Stein before the Metropolitan Republican Club of Washington, D.C. After
I denounced price
controls, Stein remarked that, in essence, the price controls were my
fault, not his and President
Nixon's.
Stein knew as well as I did that price controls
were disastrous and counterproductive, but
I and others like me had not done a good enough job of educating the
American public, and so
the Nixon Administration had been "forced" by public pressure to
impose the controls
anyway. Needless to say, I was not convinced about my guilt. Years
later, in his memoirs, Stein
wrote of the heady rush of power he felt at Camp David when planning to
impose price controls
on everyone. Poor Stein: another "victim" amidst the victimology of
American culture!
And now, Bill Clinton is in the White House, and
price controls are back in a big way.
The FCC has ordered a 15% rollback on two-thirds of the TV cable rates
in this country, thereby
reregulating communications with a bang. The reasoning? Since being
deregulated in 1987, cable
rates have risen twice as fast as general inflation. Well: averages
usually have roughly half of the
data rising higher and roughly half lower; that's the nature of an
average. Are we proposing to
combat inflation by going after every price that rises higher than the
average?
That, indeed, is the major reasoning behind the
looming Clintonian program for price
controls on health care. Health care prices have risen faster than
inflation. The threat of controls
over health care has brought forth a chorus of protests from
economists, and from former price
controllers, who learned about price controls the hard way. Thus, C.
Jackson Grayson, who
headed Nixon's price-wage control experiment from 1971 to 1973, warns:
"price" controls will
make things worse. Believe me, I've been there . . . . Controls have
not worked in 40 centuries.
They will not work now."
Grayson warns that, already 24% of U.S. health care
is spent on administrative costs,
largely imposed by government. Clintonian price control will cause
regulations and bureaucrats
to proliferate; it will raise medical costs, not
lower them. Barry Bosworth, who headed price
control efforts under Jimmy Carter, reacted similarly: "I can't believe
they [the Clinton
Administration] are going to do it. I can't believe they are that
stupid." He pointed out that health
care, a field where there is rapid innovation in goods and services, is
a particularly disastrous area
to try to impose price controls.
But none of these objections is going to work. The
brash young Clintonians don't mind if
price controls cause shortages of health care. In fact, they welcome
the prospect, because then
they can impose rationing; they can impose
priorities, and tell everyone how much of what kind
of medical care they can have. And besides, as Herb
Stein found out, there's that deeply
satisfying rush of power. We should know by now that reasoned arguments
by economists or
disillusioned ex- controllers are not going to stop them: only
determined and militant opposition
and resistance by the long-suffering public.
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