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Ron Paul Wins Two Tallies in Iowa Straw Polls - 10/31

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Ron Paul Wins Two Tallies in Iowa Straw Polls - 10/31

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limitgov Posted: Mon, Oct 31 2011 3:09 PM

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/29/ron-paul-wins-both-tallies-at-gop-pres-straw-poll-in-iowa/

 

He didn't just beat em, he whipped em with 82%.

How important was the Iowa straw poll?

 

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Wheylous replied on Mon, Oct 31 2011 6:36 PM

The results of straw polls are obviously conditionally dependent. Watch:

Effect( Win | Winner = Ron Paul) = Nothing

Effect( Win | Winner = Someone else (E.g. Cain) ) = Holy crap he shot up 15%

The notation "something | something else" means "something given something else."

Hence, and judging by history, it likely means nothing.

However, the polling companies do put Ron in third right now.

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