F Dominicus Blog : end of a cycle

An open question

Friedrich Dominicus — Tue, 08 Jan 2013 06:06:00 GMT

Well it seems time's running out. The US state does need 0,33 ¢ new debts for every $ they spend. Even an idiot can understand that this will not work. It fits perfectly that the citizens got poorer by the day. That' s clear, just printing on some paper does not make one richer. The FED is the biggest holder of US bonds and if you believe they mean what they said: "That they won't buy as many bond as before", you're in for a big surprise.

The fiscal cliff was -- as expected no problem. You can read this blog for such kind of things. I just remind you of the last time the debt ceiling should be raised....

The Americans learn now that having debt does not mean being rich and have a lot of not paid cars does not make one rich either. Debt is the problem and it will not simply get away with making new debts. I wrote about the stupidity of the US-citizens and elsewhere. This is still true, but it' not just the dumb overall which fail. It's the dump elite which stands in front of their "models".

No Austrian can be surprised an AFAIKT non really is. We wrote and write about the impossibility of central planning, central banks and wealth redistribution, we know about the impossibility of states to produce anything. We know about the problems of money as debt. So it comes as our great writers have predicted, it comes also as we all warned it will come. You can simply read through the old blogs, you can read any of the books here you can find the writing in the net. But you won't find them in Germany in news papers. And it will be hard to find them in US news papers also. The claims awareness of much more importent things like divorces of prominent, the buying of new and larger houses, cars, planes etc and such important things like "dancing with the stars" or such kind are much more important, for those not living on food ration cards. Hell it's even more important if the president stands up with his left or right foot.

The american dream is just a joke, and was replaced with live a live according to the bureacrats and you'll be fine. The payments of state workers are going through the roof and well we do not talk about their pensions. But hey you now have Obamacare, that probably counts for another few billions of new debts.

And if you think this is bad, wait for the worse to be come. If the people do not take the greenbuck serious any more you are really in trouble. And the day will come. I don't know when, but you can be sure the days of this systems are running short on time.

This stupid German has warned you also since I started this blog. I do know it does not help anyone, but me. It's kind of intellectual pleasure (kind of morbid humour I guess) the writings have given me. I wished more then once to be proved wrong this was just wishful thinking. Not just the moon is a harsh mistress, the imbeciles in the top positions are much harder. And there's no Computer which will save us from this imbeciles.....

It’s just show time

Friedrich Dominicus — Sun, 16 Dec 2012 09:29:00 GMT

well or you can name is political theatre time.

If it wouldn’t be so serious one could sit back and enjoy the show. Anyway the US democrats and republicans will simply raise the debt barrier again and so the so called fiscal cliff will just vanish like snow in the sun.

Nothing will change, the fact that the USA is bankrupt. Not just in the tight sense of having nothing more but debts. But even in moral standards. The wars are unjust, the surveillance against the civil rights. The FED is an illegal construction and the green-buck with being backed up by something like gold or solver a sham.

So the system will break down. We do not know when and how. But it’s now unavoidable. The US with just 5% of the world population just stands for 42 % of all the NEW DEBTS. And every year now there is a deficit beyond 1.2 trillions (Yes I got that figures right).

So what we see is the last and biggest credit expansion ever. There’s nothing but too much money, and it helps the defrauders to expropriate those which still do have something of some value. The payments for the bank workers have nothing to do with fair payments. It just shows the owner have not way on stopping this Bankster. The bankster also have the advantage of the politicians on their side. (Who else should take the new debts) and the worst problem is absolute central the central bank FED. She will got down the drain and take the state with her.

Maybe the citizens will keep away the power of the parties. But chances of that are slim…. Maybe the go back to the core of the constituion, because one thing is for sure, the Deldefs and bureaucrats have broken it…

I come more and more to the suspicion that the suckers get nervous.

Friedrich Dominicus — Tue, 18 Sep 2012 04:57:00 GMT

Well I can't help, but it seems the austrian school has won hands down. And well the suckers of the described non working system get more nervous by the day.

I'm not that long into this austrian stuff. I came from another area but strange enough I figured out a lot of things the austrian have written and talked about myself. It's surely not because I'm brilliant, it's just it's too obvious. It just starts with one thing. Being able to differentiate between mien and "theirs".

Whatever a state says whatever the politics say. The base is property. No state can control the complete life of anyone. There always will be the private area. You can try to destroy it but still everyone is borne and most grow up in some kind of family unit. The state can install places to child "care" or force the kids to go to school. But school just can last for such long. After that the control and influence stops.

If you have a clean idea about the things you own. The other things just follow naturally. It can be correct that anyone can get along and take away the things you own. Yes they socialits state have done that and still the people "owned" houses and still the people even did barter (even if not in the state paper, declared to be money). Even in the GDR there were wages and the like, and even there were smaller or larger shops in which you could buy something and still one had to pay the handcrafter. So in fact no life without ownership can not be thought.

Well it must be the hell for any of the sucker. In the end there are things they can not control . And what they never will be able to control is your mind. No-one can tell you what you current desires are. It's owned by you and you just can fullfill it yourself. You want something, then you try to get it. You know in our society the way that works is with "having money". You own enough money to pay for your wishes, then you just go out and buy it.

If you do not have the money you have just two ways on getting it. - on a voluntary bas - by force

Most of men have an idea about the correct way, And no corruption will change that. The only way they agree to the force if it's for "larger" good. That's the way of the sucker. They claim, they know what's best for everyone. And here we go, they have no way enforce that forever. Yes, they can raise the taxes, but there is a natural "limit" the higher the tax the less are willing to bear them. And from there on a raw force takes place: markets.

Oh yes the suckers will do everything they can to disallow entering the "black" markets. Anyway, there's no way that this can possibly work. Kuba is the most impressive example, and indeed it just works because of "black markets". How will you disallow helping his/her neighbor?

Anyway the suckers now see the limits of their aggression and that makes them even more aggressive. They will fight to the bloos with the "forces" . Of course they would not name it that "primitive" but just see the wordings. "Speculants, unfair markets, too less control" and the like. So you see it in the vocabulary they use. They want to go on with their suppression but still the simple facts work against them. And you see this makes them a hell of nervous.

Now it's official

Friedrich Dominicus — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 05:50:00 GMT

The non-plan about a "voluntary" debt cut, is gone. Wel if you have followed this blog you know this hardly can be told to be a suprise.

At first If I'm having the bond I have the right to get my money back. It's up to me and the debtor to figure something out if he's not able to pay. And there is the possibility to get an insurance about a non-paying debtor. So if I'm having the bond and such insurance. Why should I disclaim my rights.

I swore myself some years ago never ever to buy any bond of any government any time again. And so I was out of this bonds in 2009. So it's should not be my business any more. But now the states decide to hand out money they to not have to other governments which are broke. You can imagine how I feel about that. This is theft in it's worst form. But it's theft from governments, and then it's not theft any more. That's ridiculous.

Anyway the private bond holders have said. We are not convinced and now it's obvious Greece is broken. And the "saviors" of the other EU countries are on there way to be broken also. Even the rating companies, finally realize that. But still they are givign most of the states something with an A in it. That's stupid and another lie. Fact ist all but a few countries are broke. Manys in the € zone and we do not have to talk about the US anymore. They has a debt increase over 70% in the last 3 years. They are completly broken also. So neither of them deserves that anyones trusts them any more.

It seems that trust has gone down the drain. And that's a good thing. I hope we'll see the end of this Fiat-money system soon. And I wish this that those which have put us there, get their deserved fait.

Too big to fail?

Friedrich Dominicus — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 07:03:00 GMT

I for my part starting to thinking that this is impossible. There's a limit to seize in everything. I even will start betting on "too big to survive" instead.

Why do I think that... Well look at the US, the government has grown bigger every day since the 2nd world war and more and more goes through government hands. And states do not "produce" anything they are just "consuming" so more and more things are getting consumed by the ever increasing government. As we can see the government has consumed not just what they have stolen, but also what they have "borrowed". And this now is simply "too" much, to large the debts not to fail. In short too large to survive.

The states in the EURO zone face a similar problem. The governments in every country have grown and the EU bureaucracy. So in a way there's a level more too "consume" and not to produce. Nearly all the EU states have too much debt. Now they want to cure the problems caused by seize with inflating the seize even more. In the whole history of nature and mankind. Nothing could grow beyond some limit. Just look back to dinosaurs. They grow bigger every generation and suddenly they collapsed and "vanished". Every empire was destroyed AFTER it has out-grown a size which was survivable.

Nature also tells us there is alway scarcity. Lions can not survive without enough prey. The prey can not survive without enough grass. Grass can not survive without enough rain and sun. Governments can only survive with enough support from the population. There is a point of no-return where the population simply does not support government any longer. Even the most inhuman government can not fight all of their population. (All is way too much but I can't tell where the limit is)

Check the big empires they all extend and extend and extend and finally collapsed. This is what happens if things are getting too big. Governments world-wide are way too big to survive, so are large corporations. Yes they will rule and yes they will make our life on earth hell. But finally they will break down.

Nobody know when things really got too big or start to tumble. So take this with some tons of salt. It seems the debt spiral has turned into a death sprial. You can see the time-spans where new even higher (and IMHO more absurd) figurers are mentioned. See e.g here in Euro land the costs on "saving" .. whomever. It has started with around 300 billions. and now with new leverages we're talking about 2 trillions. This increase just happened in a year. Do you remember Paulson, he wanted to start with 750 billions and now we are way beyond a few trillions. This raise has happened in just 3 years. So you see the nearer we come to the present the higher the figures. With rates of growth well beyond 1000% a year. In the case of the EU we have a raise of roughly 1.7 trillions that is an increas from 1.4 / 0.3 = 466,67 %. Still it does not even cover all the debt just the debt of a state like Italy. Now unfortunately there is also Spain, Portugal, Fraance and last but not least Germany. ..... If we just look at the debts of the biggest countries in Euro land we are talking about 7- 10 trillions of debt. And well the less likely it will be that they will pay their debts. So no EUR land will not survive in that form simple because it has outgrown it's seize of survival

Either the US or the EUro countries will break down, before I bet we see some other developing countries to face their doom. Too much money from EUR countries and US countries was put there. If they start contracting to pay their obligations, those countries will be without a chance. But it does no help. Assume that Greece will default on their debts, then this debts are simply gone. And one of the other bank will face deep troubles (Currently it seems the french banks are quite high exposed to risks resulting on Greek) It could be no surprise that Sarkozy tries massivly to find new lender. I guess he knows all too well how dire the french situation really is. The unemployment rate is especially high among the younger one, and central planning does it's best to be as inefficient as possible. And yes it's not a surprise that the EZB has bought securities from the PIG states, they know without it they would be gone.

Germany has it's own massive problems which still are unsolved. The pension promises e.g are simply terrible high and covered by anything. The taxes can be well over 50% and that's unbearable.

So I extend my predictions with that: Within the next five years the EUR zone will not exist in it's current shape.

The near future predictions are difficult because we do not now what will be faster the contraction of the economy or the printing of money. If we assume that contraction will prevail we should see falling stocks, falling gold till the printing press will win. After that we will see higher inflation. I predicted around 5 % within the next 3 or so years. It could be that this will take a little bit longer (but then the inflation will raise well beyond 5-7 %. That will be the last thing we remember while seeing the current governments and states collapsing. Simply because of "TOO BIG TO SURVIVE"

After that who knows?

What are the signs

Friedrich Dominicus — Mon, 30 May 2011 06:24:00 GMT

that we nearing us an end of a bubble/burst cycle?

I wished I knew. So I just can speculate. At first it seems the debts were piled up higher than ever before in "peaceful" history. Peaceful in the sense that there is no war in Europe. But maybe I'm just too optimistic about the war stuff, maybe one has to admit it's war between the deledefs and us. But well we currently do not shoot one another (but don't ask me how long that will last).

There a a few other signes that maybe this time the end of this cycle is nearing. Gold still raises, slow but steady. And the worst fiat-currencies (EUR and US) are declining as well. I know there is not "real" alternative country on this earth, basing their economy on values, but well there are worse and a little better than worse fiat-money currencies. However we also see raising prices of commodities. The raises are not that striking in the "non-core" inflation area. But non-core inflation is kind of "a little bit pregnant". It's something that simply "does" not exist. We see devaluation races while the central bank go wild printing money. And so yes I think the prices show this devaluation.

Interesting also that the politicians are just cycling around each other and try hard to avoid any acknowledge of their population. You can see this in the last G8 meeting, which one just can describe with one word: spooky. They just were placed behind fences and the executive was closing down everything else. There you could see that they are not hampered by any sort of reality. It really was one of the days, one could see how they are not "working" for the public. At least not what I understand under public.

We've seen remarkable actions of men in north africa. They did not have learned much from our faults, but they managed to drive away their current deledefs which is a good thing. But I'm afraid they will follow the next duper, to some stupid thing. I hope I will be 100% wrong on this, but I do not see that politicians currently "leading" have done that much good. But may be "this time is different?" I can't tell.

The actions of the federal banks seem to be desperation in disguise. They tell us "Everythign is under control" but I would not believe that for a second. So currently they try to prolong the suffering, but in the end we know "we are all dead" and Fiat money will die if not these days or months than someday in the future. You can not have "money" as debt. It's one of the biggest chams ever in history. We are trying to sneak our way to wealth. That does not work. And devaluation of currencies is the surest way into doom. There is not exception to this rule. The "ruling" people, start issuing less valuable money and use their guns to "convince" us to take the more bad money on face to "better" alternatives. And I'm afraid there is never a "this time is different" in this area. The currently leading people do want to "lead" in the future too and so they do everything they possibly can to keep "their" system running. And so we never ever will see that they try not to fight what they probably will call "the market". They will always attack those pointing out their lies....

And I ask you frankly. How can one believe that devils would to anything not to tantalize their "underlings"?