October 2011 - Posts
Well I'd like to write. "With ESFS III" we are now on our way to correct things.
Unfortunatly one can not write anything about that. It's not that we started making less debt, au contraire. It is tried again to fix something caused by debts to cure with more debts
The voluntary "cut" of the banks of around 50% is absolutly open. I very depends what positions the banks take. If they think they can gain more by a open default of Greece, then they will follow that path. Anyway the problem is every bank will have to decide for themselves.
Because of the CDS we don't know how bad it would hit the banks. Maybe they are on the side of getting th assurances. Than the problem will be of their counterparts. I just know if anything would come from any government I would be very skeptical about any advantages supposed to hold for me.
Just remember last year the governments actively asked the banks to "invest" in Greek bonds. Well if you've done that you'd have to bear quite a loss now. There won't be any advantage.
And see that the bonds of states were treated as if they do not have any risk. And so they are treates nearly as equity. Not it turns out they are everything but risk free. And now the states require higher equity to back up their bonds. So you can see, the states do everything they can to get more under their control.
If you give into the sirene songs, you are in deep trouble. So I just can recommend the same as for ages. Do not hold any bonds of states or you will be sorry sooner than later.
Now you may be suprises leverage under different circumstances do have a different meaning.
Meaning if used by politicians: "more fire power", hardly "more" risk, telling markets stories of drunkeness and cruelty sorry, sedation. It's just for the "bigger" good. Just well the base for this leverage still is money they do not have in the second case this is named differently, here it is named saving the taxes of the population.
Meaning if used by not politicians, greed, high risk if done with money on does not have speculating on credit. Ah yes Lehmann was gone because of leverage but you see leverage is not leverage every where.
In short the politicians use what the doom in the private economy. To be true, I guess we have to go back far in time to find a similiar decision day in parliament. Last time it ended in WW II.
Deledefs is just to kind to this kind of men.....
Before that all I wrote:
Now Lybia will get even less than even the French. Scharia as “base” or right. So in fact Lybia wants to exchange one kind of dictatorship with another one. And this time we “must” help the “poor” Lybians. Well not with my agreement. If they think Scharia is a good base for civil rights they should keep it to themselves.
I do not want to get even near a country with such “laws”
I really wished that people would surprise me in a positive way. But no one dictator killed another one waiting behind the next corner. What a fucking stupid business.
a quick search it has not been used somewhere, where it may have been cited.So I claim having it introduced.
Still I’m encouraging everyone to use it wherever you think it will suit.
Let’s bite at the socialists all over the world. Help me spread this sentence.
I looked through my outer Mises Blog and found this:
Spare the money now, spend it later
The Failout plan can not expected to work with an acceptable certainty. In fact I’d bet 1:10 it’ll fail.
But if you throw out the money now , you have nothing else if this failout plan fails. It’s high time to prepare for a recession phase. The prices for home equity will fall, maybe crumble. At least down a third IMHO. That will distroy a few Trillions of value, this fall can not be held with 700 Billions.
So keep the money, now and see how to spend it one something which will work with higher probability. Building of houses will dry out, however the US infrastructure needs some overhaul.
You have to face the fact that Oil is sparse, and you have to face the fact that Water is sparse also in many regions. In the forseeable future California and especially Las Vegas will suffer under water shortage. You’ve to come back an invest in your own country in the producing industries. The cars are build sloppy, the houses often also, this sloppyness will cost you dearly.
You can not help, but the chinese have over a trillion US-$ to spend, you must be prepared that they will buy cheaply if not now than just a bit later. Use the money for an “american” solution. Tha means give the people the means to help themselves. That means “fair paid” jobs, “fair prices”, you need as every developed country craftmanns which can build, repair and maintain the ideas engineers invent. So spend money wisely on education for your children and grown-ups also.
It’s not worth hanging to just one plan, (which in fact is none). Search for alternatives, discuss them and then make an educated choice. Currently you give yourself none but one choice and that’s exactly as useful as none plan at all. If in doubt, do nothing, that’s at least an alternative….
I wonder really what this "occupy wall street" guys want to tell me. Don't the be ashamed of what they do?.
Who has made the bailout-packages?
Who has mad the laws under which banks have to work?
Who is printing money as there will be no tomorrow.
Who has trillions of debts all-over-the-world?
It's everyones right to say I'm a stupid one, but hey I'm in the majority. And so even if I'm stupid I can not be wrong.
I wish them all the poverty they deserve. We'll see what happens if market will be strangled to death. I bet they will go unofficial while visiting black (oh suprise) markets just to survive... I really wish them all the worse they're wishing for.
At least I can not see it. Yes indeed the stock have gained quite a lot the last few days. Still the problems are unsolved and well it does not look as if they would be solved in a sensible way. It’s the old story, “Print more money and find more lenders”. We’ll think another 8 billions in Greece, and it seems politicians talk about trillions for “saving banks” (again). Still the money is not there and credit is the only “available” currency. And if you look at it the divers Players try to get rid of any new credits as fast as possible.
To the time of money as value this was inflation. And so we are not just inflating and inflating and inflating. How could that make sense if your problem is too much debt. What good can it be to inflate the credit sums over and over and over again?
No it does not make sense, and sooner or later it will show. Every day we are going on with this makes the bust harder…. That’s a logic just destroyers can love…
Well I guess you have heard about Greece before. If you are wise ;-) and reading this blog and/or the older one you know that I've made my own calculations on the sparse information one could gather. In fact the financial situation of Greece is very diffuse, but now that you know Greece still must have some Millions left:
If we assume one tank is around 1 Mio €. Well the Greece will not have to pay that they maybe even will get them for "free". Well if you've read the Books of Heinlein you know "There ain't such thing as a free lunch". And so the Greece will "just" have to bear "maintenance costs", "fuel cost (this tanks are not that "thirsty" "just" 10l /km) and it's fuel the Greece Army has not used up till know (according to http://www.griechenland-blog.gr/2011/usa-bieten-griechenland-400-kampfpanzer-m1a1-abrams-an/5788/) And what did some Trojan says. I do not believe the Danaer even if the give us gifts.
So in the end it will cost them dearly. One could imaging that because of Putins "move" for a panrussion Federation the Amercians would like to have well equipped "buffers" down there. Anyway as you might know also Greece and Turkey are not "that big" friends. And imagine what'll happen if Greece will break down (you do not believe that could happen) Well think of Argentina, it broke down and suddenly the middle classes where "gone". So don't say it can't happen. It had happened it happens (currently all European deledefs but one or so) are doing anything to make us European more poverish.
And the Americans among you (at least I hope a few are there) , know what it means to live in over-debted countries. And well you middle class is also diminishing. Because neither in the US nor in the EUR zone there is something like market. The bureaucrats and deledefs make the rules and you have to obey at a point of a gun. And well because it is better that the money is in the hand of government (because of it's great justice) they have to take it away from you..
So the moves should make you think. Why would one support other governments with more and more deadly weapons. Look at Syria, look at Lybia and you may have you answer. It could mean martial law! And if the military is at the top of government, you know war is nearly inevitable. You also know that human rights do not count much in the US any more. There still is Guantanamo there still is Abu Ghreic, there still is torture and well there is "killing" in the name of "freedom". What freedom is "dictatorship". So draw your own conclusion. I'm worried and it's getting worse day-by-day.
Well it seems it's time for a new round of bank savings (this time we do start here in € land, but don't laugh you get your share in US-$ land also) . Well you may think. "Not again" well I can understand that, just it's not the first time and it'll not be the last time with the regulations about banking, fiat-money. All this would not be problem if not all banks were unable to stand bank runs.
You read that correctlly no bank is able to pay out all the sight deposits. You ask how could that be. Well it could be because the banks do lend out that money. In the "sure" assurance that not all will take away their money at once. Well in every other enterprise this would be named what it is deception.
Well anyway you know that all our currencies are just that a big deceiption. Having money as debt is the base of all the following ugliness. Anyway government and banking system are "brothers-in-unlaw". They back each other in this big Defraud. And well you have nearly no choice. You can not even pay cash everywhere any longer and in fact the governments want you to pay everything via banks. Because then there will be paper trail. And well it's possible to follow such.
So governnments and banks are imposters, and they help each other where they can and the prey are we. If you do not believe me well so be it. I suggest nevertheless to read "This time is different" and you'll see how this unsound systems re-establish themselves over and over again.
And now to the headline of this entry. The costs. Each round of "saving" banks adds another whopping 87% to the exiting debt. Now for Germany this means. We have currently 80 % debt/GDP ratio so after the next round we'll have 149,6%. So well the debt/GDB of Greece is around 160% and you can bet this will be the last level with that current debts.
If you see the stocks soar. Think about it for just a second, then take a deep breath and then "sell off". (Or don't it's your decision) . Now we will have to recapitalize not just the banks but states. And look around you see there is nearly no debt-free state out there. Draw your own conclusions.
Wel I guess it will get worse, It seems quite a lot a still reading here and so I guess I have to post here also:
Here we go
Peace the Obama way:
Once upon a time (well this time frame is around a week or so) . Obama decided, well there is this afghanian preacher there, he’s an American, but still I’m under the impression that he is a terrorist. Would you be so kind to do anything about that?
Military not slow with killing. Just sends out a killing machine killed that man.
And there is Peace the Obama way.
Unfortunatly this blog can not really be maintained any longer. I can not access it. If I'm looking at the statistics I get time-outs usually etc.
And well here seems not be any option having moved this blog to th new mises community. That's not good IMHO.