Dear all:
Not too long ago I was in a discussion with someone over the present crisis and central/reserve bank monetary policy.
My discussion partner claimed that the level of loans from the central/reserve bank is insignificant. The key policy rate, he claimed, was a pure policy rate.
If money is not loaned from the central/reserve bank, how is the general market interest rate influenced by the key policy rate? How does this work in practice?
Some would probably claim that the policy rate is abided by by market participants on a completely voluntary basis. I have trouble believing that.
Also, if the level of lending from the central/reserve bank is insignificant, where does all the monetary inflation come from? Of course, there is the effect of fractional reserve banking, but that just gives a multiplier.
I am mainly interested in how things work exclusive of "extraordinary measures" such as "quantitative easing." I am also generally interested in how it works with a general central/reserve bank, not necessarily specifically the Federal Reserve System, although the Fed as an example would help as well.
A fractional reserve system where banks loan money based only on faith in their credit is inherently unstable. Without a central bank any bank that engaged in fractional reserve would collapse. The central bank's role is to guarantee the credit of the banks and allow fractional reserve to go on without limits. But of course if banks could lend unlimited amounts of money, the result would be hyperinflation and reserve ratios approaching the limit of 0. To prevent this the central bank has to regulate how much the banks are allowed to lend, and it does so by setting benchmark interest rates which are really more of a threat of action than a real action.
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The central bank can create inflation in several ways. It can loan new money to banks via the discount window. It can purchase assets from the banks with money created from thin air. Or it can lower reserve ratios. All of such will induce banks as a whole to create more loans, which will create more money. Without a change in demand for credit, increasing the supply as such will effect the price (interest rate).
Check out Shostak's interpretation of how monetary inflation can influence long-term interest rates without corresponding savings rate changes, as opposed to simply effecting short-term rates like the Federal Funds Rate.
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meambobbo: The central bank can create inflation in several ways. It can loan new money to banks via the discount window. It can purchase assets from the banks with money created from thin air. Or it can lower reserve ratios. All of such will induce banks as a whole to create more loans, which will create more money. Without a change in demand for credit, increasing the supply as such will effect the price (interest rate). Check out Shostak's interpretation of how monetary inflation can influence long-term interest rates without corresponding savings rate changes, as opposed to simply effecting short-term rates like the Federal Funds Rate.
That is of course, if the banks are actually able/willing to make the loans. If they are in a "zombie" state, they will use those blankets of liquidity until they can earn their way out, or trade through their liabilities.
Goldenboy219:That is of course, if the banks are actually able/willing to make the loans. If they are in a "zombie" state, they will use those blankets of liquidity until they can earn their way out, or trade through their liabilities.
Agreed, but that's when the central banks shift into other modes (quantative easing), which I believe is outside the scope of the original question. In which case, even though we are having credit deflation, the money supply is still increasing. It probably will not translate into price inflation for a while, as higher cash balances are saved and less consumer credit is taken on, due to both replacing the losses on previous investment errors and deflationary price expectations. When price inflation does come around, it will push even fragile banks to lend, as sitting on devaluing cash reserves become less and less attractive as opposed to making risky loans.
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