I've seen the charts which show how the Fed has pumped incredible amounts of money into the banks/economy/whatever. Given this, why are we not seeing price inflation? Is it because the banks are holding on to the money and not letting it all out?
Additionally, assuming that the govt continues their economic planning the way they have in the past, are the only two realistic options for the relatively near future (a) stagflation or, highly unlikely but possible (b) hyper-inflation?
Thanks,
Brutus 2.0
Quite a few prices are already higher or increasing. But the Government uses the CPI, I use gold. So lets use the CPI. Why isn't the CPI increasing? The answer is two fold: 1. The Fed is paying banks interest on reserves, that means they get paid to keep money stored at the Fed. 2. Incomes are decreasing. Unemployment is increasing. So as folks lose jobs or take jobs that pay less than previously they have less to spend and therefore keep prices generally lower than they would otherwise be.
And CPI can be manipulated to give whatever result is wanted should the need arise. This is one of the reasons why a distinction between inflation as an increase in the money supply vs a general rise in prices is important. The inflation has happened, the price rise hasn't yet happened. That doesn't mean there isn't a lot to worry about though. A lot can be done to make the 'price level' look stable even as the actualy cost of living goes through the roof.
This is the best 'deflation' or perhaps low inflation analysis I could find.
http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/hoisington_economic_overview.html
The CPI is biased.
For example, the "Cash for Clunkers" credit counts as a decrease in the price of a car, decreasing the CPI.
I have my own blog at FSK's Guide to Reality. Let me know if you like it.
Brutus 2.0:Given this, why are we not seeing price inflation? Is it because the banks are holding on to the money and not letting it all out?
Because the Chinese government and other foreigners are still lending the U.S. government money.
At most, 5% of the population would need to stop complying to bring down the government.
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