I have a quick question that I hope some of you can address regarding my confusion about the state of the dollar. My education and background tells me that we are diving headfirst into inflation but most indicators seem to point to the opposite, ie. this article http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/298957/Dollar%27s-Hit-a-%22Major-Bottom%22-Prechter-Says-Why-That%27s-Not-Such-Good-News;_ylt=AsNPInIB6RpPyPY_bsnny.tk7ot4;_ylu=X3oDMTFhYzY3YXFlBHBvcwM2BHNlYwNtb3N0UmVjb21tZW5kZWQEc2xrA2RvbGxhcnNoaXRhbQ--?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,UUP,UDN,TBT,GLD,SLVSo, my questions is...what am i missing here, where am I going wrong?Thanks...
Price of Oil - Up
Price of Copper - Up
Price of Lumber - Up
Price of Silver - Up
Price of Gold - Up
Price of Soybeans - Up
Price of Euros - Up
Price of labor -Unchanged, sticky
Price of shipping- still low
Price of consumer goods - still low
Consumer goods should theoretically lag the most due to inflation after a recession, due to inventory buildup, profit layer, and suppressed demand. When the economy picks up steam, consumer goods will increase with their underlying components. Labor is largely contracted in, and is in a long-term slump regardless of monetary policy. Fed inflation projections are always lagging indicators. The smart money, like John Paulson , Warren Buffet, and Nicholas Taleb are gearing up for inflation. These people have been right before.
So economic theory points to inflation. Most market indicators point to inflation. Theoretically lagging prices are lagging. The only thing that could stop massive inflation is a permanently sour economy severely curtailing demand. But even that is unlikely to work as bad economies typically run into massive budget deficits and debasements of currencies to attempt restarting economies.
Look of the Argentinian economic crisis. First deflation, then massive inflation
Monetary inflation of 100% has already taken place. No matter what the market does, our dollars will be worth less then they would have been if the monetary inflation did not take place. Whether the dollar will rally or not in the next 1-2 years, who knows?
So, is the reason that there were basically no replies here because no one is able to provide a legitimate answer?
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