Perhaps there is a poll function here?
I was curious how many austrians reaped huge profits because of your 'predictions' in the housing bubble.
George Soros and other Hedge Funds, using Keynesian predictions and being Keynesians, accuratly predicted the housing collapse. They profited hugely, with Soros to the tune of several billion, by shorting the housing/mortagages.
I myself found out about the capital ratio problem that banks were NAILED with too late, and didn't make any money (read LOST) investment money. (Not knowing that AIG was providing such insane liquidity protections, I missed that too). My financial assets were virtually killed, because I, and very few people, were not aware of the bank exposure to the ABCP markets in terms of conduits providers, etc.
So, I assume that all the Austrians here made a killing in the stock market by accurately predicting the housing collapse? (read "No I don't")
If you didn't make enormous profits off your 'accurate' 'predictions' why is that?
Ixtellor
P.S. I exempt the philosophy people like Jon (my personal hero and guru) from not capitalizing on this exceptional opportunity to make big bucks.
http://www.europac.net/
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"
Bob Dylan
You will probably find that most people on here are fairly new to Austrian economics. I did not find this site until about a year and a half ago.
At most, I think only 5% of the adult population would need to stop cooperating to have real change.
My silver investment is up 35.5% at the moment.
Because most eminent libertarians at the Mises institute are professors and scholars by trade, not investors? If you are so smart why aren't you rich fallacy.
do we get free cheezeburger in socielism?
GilesStratton: http://www.europac.net/
Did you lose much of your investment like many of Schiff's clients did in 2008?
solos:Did you lose much of your investment like many of Schiff's clients did in 2008?
Where there is no property there is no justice; a proposition as certain as any demonstration in Euclid
Fools! not to see that what they madly desire would be a calamity to them as no hands but their own could bring
Gold is up to 950$ today.
The fallacies of intellectual communism, a compilation - On the nature of power
Byzantine:Economics and finance are two different things. Which banks to short? At what price?
Yes, but every economist I know is also an investor. They like to use their 'inside knowledge' and use it to profit... you know like a capitalist.
Unfortunatley, I didn't have access to the hedge fund economist predictions that led Soros and others to make billions. He and others using Keynesian philosophy did. There seems to be a lot of faith, in Austrians ability to predict market trends, so I am honestly asking you why aren't they profiting off of it? Or if they are, who are they, and where can I read about them and their consistant successes.
Are there Austrian financial advisors?
Byzantine:These are financial issues, not praxeological ones
I expressely said I was not directing my questions to the ones who study praxelogy. I think the Austrians philosophists are great. I am becoming a huge fan. I just think they make incorrect assesments about austrian economics, but that their moral arguments are wonderful based on their a priori.
Byzantine:Also, I don't think you're really interested in honest debate.
Was this directed at me?
I do seek honest debate. Its why I am reading the 978244 pages of 'homework' several of you suggested. Its why I currently think the theory of malinvestment is really fascinating and I don't have a good rebuttal for it, basically I was convinced. Jon I, convinced me of the morality of his a priori. (morality is subjective, but based on my own biases and culture upbringing [judeo-christian capitalist] I think it is "Moral")
You see, assuming you were talking to me, my opinion can change. I don't hold a set of absolutist beliefs, and if I feel anyone here has a compelling argument I will accept and adapt it. I don't see how one could be any more honestly seeking debate than that.
Ixtellor:I was curious how many austrians reaped huge profits because of your 'predictions' in the housing bubble. George Soros and other Hedge Funds, using Keynesian predictions and being Keynesians, accuratly predicted the housing collapse. They profited hugely, with Soros to the tune of several billion, by shorting the housing/mortagages.
Once again, the lack of supporting evidence is profound. Keynesians couldn't correctly predict their way out of a paper bag. He just took a stab in the dark. And more than likely, he's friendly with all those in power. The ones who control the counterfeiting machines. It's not too hard to predict stuff, when you get told in advance, the printing machines will be going into overdrive creating the bubble that is housing, or you know AIG and all the other block heads get money for writing the loans, not on the interest of it being paid back.
Of course, Soros may be right that the world monetary system is systematically unraveling. But today's system was constructed by the very planners that Soros says ought to be given the power to redesign the world economy once again. In fact, what we need is a monetary system that manages itself the way the gold standard used to.
What's more interesting is the psychology of billionaires who want to deny others the opportunities that made them rich and influential. Out of guilt or a desire to block others from following in their footsteps, they adopt a redistributionist mentality, not just in their philanthropy but in their politics. So intense is his faith in government that he has even advocated even a centralized Department of Bereavement.
Inside Soros
Was it wrong of me to LOL at this?
So, I assume that all the Austrians here made a killing in the stock market by accurately predicting the housing collapse? (read "No I don't") If you didn't make enormous profits off your 'accurate' 'predictions' why is that?
Woke up roughly a year and a few months ago. So I didn't gain much, but then I didn't lose any either. By the way, are you going to keep all your assets in US dollars? Please do, we'll see how that works out for you.
"Arrogance diminishes wisdom." You're a prime example.
Stranger: Gold is up to 950$ today.
I bought in mid year at around $750.
Peace
Ixtellor: Are there Austrian financial advisors?
I can name 2 big ones off the top of my head.
Peter Schiff and Mike Shedlock
Where I come from, the women don't glow, but the men definitely plunder.
My use of the Austrian framework didn't make me money, other than through certain commodities. But it did help me avoid losses. I also read Jeffery Hoening at Smartmoney.com. Some of his systematic advice resonated with me. Don't fight the trend. Buy and sell with the momentum. The real money is made on the middle 80% of a boom, not the first or last 10%. Spread your ins and outs over time. Like it at $50? Buy some. Goes up to $55, with momentum in the sector, buy some more. Wait until something fundamental changes before you sell - but you have to pay attention. Stop-losses are key (if you invest in those types of assets).
I grew skeptical of the boom, but I rode it up with everyone. I started getting antsy October/November 2007. I started realizing losses from the peaks, down 5% out then comes 25% of my money, down 5% more out comes the middle 50%, etc. I freely admit that I am not a wizard. But I like to think that I applied some discipline in both the selection of funds and the entry and exit from those funds. I also took to heart the advice that small fish like me get killed when government interventions drive all prices. Most of my coworkers are down 40% to 70% in 2008. The stuff I was in back in 2007 is down 50% to 60%. I am actually even to 10% down. I have stopped contributing to my 401(k). I think that we are headed for hyperinflation, and nothing I have access to in the 401(k) isn't someone's liability, if you get my drift. Go bullionvault. I have stopped holding cash in the bank. I paid off my house.
If you know that there is nothing real propping up (share) prices, then you are successfully using the Austrian framework. There is no "right" price. There is only what the market will bear. If you know that the final value of fiat paper is 0, and you let that knowing inform your actions, then you are using the Austrian framework. The thing that scares me the most is that almost no one realizes we are only a few printed zeroes away from Zimbabwe. Everyone knows that Zimbabwe just struck 12 (freaking) zeroes from their notes?
I am not a professional invester. I don't short. I generally don't trade in anything but funds and commodities. But the knowing that the Austrian framework provides does allow you more control over your destiny.
One hundred trillion Zimbabwe dollar note
Jim Rogers too.
Freedom of markets is positively correlated with the degree of evolution in any society...
jason4liberty:If you know that the final value of fiat paper is 0
Isn't value subjective? Why can I trade my dollar for goods and services?
Schools are labour camps.
Certainly value is subjective. The Wiemer era housewife chose to burn the bank notes, because they would burn longer than the wood they could purchase. The Continental notes spawned the phrase "Not worth a Continental". In Zimbabwe today, if you write a check the merchants require that you write for double the purchase price, because by the time the check clears prices have doubled.
Only the restraint of the Fed and the Treasury protect us (US citizens or those who hold dollars) from experiencing the same reality. I will propose a scenario for you.
You work and save to get your $1 bill. Then the Treasury issues $40,000,000,000 in new currency. What purchasing power do you expect your hard earned $1 to have then?
The only difference between a $1 bill and a $100 bill is two zeros. The Fed has the technology to add three more, or six more, or 12 more, or really, however many they might need. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
One of the fundamental rules of economics is that only scarce goods are economized. Since there is no limit to the issuance of fiat paper, there is no intrinsic reason why the "supply" of fiat paper can not be infinite. Thus, the final value of all fiat paper currencies is 0. (You might be able to sell your $1 in the future as a curio. I have thought about purchasing some old notes od defunct currencies so that I can hand them to disbelievers and show them.)
I guess you have a great point. If the Fed keeps producing money, then its exchange value will drop to rock bottom. However, keep in mind that the little use value not directly related to exchange (wallpaper, fire tinder, etc.) will still remain. For example, if lots of food was produced, it would loose its value for exchange (if food was a currency), however, its use as a source of nourishment will still remain. However, if a lot of dollars are produced, then yes, it would loose its value, since it is only designed as a medium of exchange.
jason4liberty:In Zimbabwe today, if you write a check the merchants require that you write for double the purchase price, because by the time the check clears prices have doubled.
That is really scary.
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