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Just started reading 'Crash Proof' by Schiff...thesis?

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atrickpay Posted: Tue, Jun 17 2008 10:31 AM

I'm having trouble dissecting the exact thesis of Pete's book. I've read a few chapters so far, and I'm still not sure what the his whole frickin' thesis is yet!

Here's what I've got down so far:

1)Regulation by the State in the USA caused a huge part of the production good economy to move elsewhere.

2)This led the population as a whole to start importing much more than they were exporting.

And here, my train of understanding derails...

Can you economists help me?

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More so number 2.  The US population is importing much more than they are exporting.  We have become a consumer nation, rather than a producer nation.

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atrickpay:

I'm having trouble dissecting the exact thesis of Pete's book. I've read a few chapters so far, and I'm still not sure what the his whole frickin' thesis is yet!

...

Can you economists help me?

Yes.  The book is about investing with EuroPac.  It's a decent primer for the uninitiated but he can't and doesn't give enough specific info for anyone who would be reading a book this basic, on where specifically to invest.  Hence why the last 3rd of the book is devoted to bringing up EuroPac 1+ times per chapter.

I think it's a great book, but it's not going to solve all of your investment problems.  It will however lead you to Peter Schiff as your investment consultant.

 

 

If you find something evil that wobbles, push it. - Gary North

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fsk replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 2:36 PM

If you want a crash-proof investment, buy physical gold or silver.  If you want a relatively low-risk decent investment, buy an index fund.

 

I have my own blog at FSK's Guide to Reality. Let me know if you like it.

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atrickpay replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 2:42 PM

ViennaSausage: OK, but what is the problem with that?

That scenario wouldn't cause any problems if all the exchanges were completely voluntary...So in other words, how is the gov't f'n things up?

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JAlanKatz replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 2:57 PM

atrickpay:
That scenario wouldn't cause any problems if all the exchanges were completely voluntary...So in other words, how is the gov't f'n things up?
 

I think, from the comments I've seen on this thread without reading the book, that it would be more accurate to say that the scenario described wouldn't happen if not for government.  How, in a voluntary economy, can imports exceed exports?  That's just another word for bankruptcy.

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fsk replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 2:57 PM

The government is ****ing things up via monetary policy.

Other countries are willing to export tangible goods to the USA, in exchange for a piece of paper with a number printed on it.  As long as other countries are willing to trade tangible goods for a piece of paper, why bother actually manufacturing anything?

If a foreign country says "We won't export goods for worthless paper anymore", then the US overthrows their government.  For example, Saddam Hussein was willing to sell oil in Euros instead of dollars.  Those military bases in Europe, Japan, and the Middle East are there to prevent foreign leaders to have any funny ideas about dropping the dollar as a reserve currency.

How can a manufacturer in the USA compete with a printing press?

 

I have my own blog at FSK's Guide to Reality. Let me know if you like it.

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atrickpay replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 3:08 PM

FSK: That is a myth--FRN's are not worthless.  Tons of people accept and want to be paid with them.

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fsk replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 3:18 PM

Federal Reserve Notes *ARE* worthless.  There's nothing that prevents the Federal Reserve from printing 10% more of them and giving them to their friends in the financial industry.

By holding Federal Reserve Notes in my wallet or bank account, I'm letting other people steal from me via inflation.

A more accurate statement is that Federal Reserve Notes have *TEMPORARY* value, but no permanent long-term value.  Their value is continually eroded by inflation.

Foreign central banks hold dollars as reserves.  Their purchasing power is being lost to inflation and stolen by the US financial industry.

I have my own blog at FSK's Guide to Reality. Let me know if you like it.

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atrickpay replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 3:29 PM

FSK: It's true that they have temporary value.  But again, I must reiterate that the statement that they are worthless is a myth.  Why? Because lots of people still attach worth to them.

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fsk replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 3:39 PM

It depends on what you mean by "valuable".  I define something as being "valuable" if I can put it under my mattress, come back 20 years later, and it will still have the same purchasing power.  Federal Reserve Notes fail that test.  Gold and silver pass that test.

Federal Reserve notes only lose their value at a rate of 10%-30% per year (depending on which measure of inflation you use).  That's not as bad as losing all their value all at once, but that point is approaching soon.

The bottom line for me is that, by keeping Federal Reserve Notes, I'm letting other people steal from me via inflation.  The fact that most other people are fools, doesn't make it morally acceptable.

As a practical matter, I still use Federal Reserve Notes as money.  I'm working towards alternatives.  I'm thinking of buying some gold or silver, but haven't done so yet.

I have my own blog at FSK's Guide to Reality. Let me know if you like it.

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atrickpay replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 4:02 PM

Okay that's fine FSK.

Now, back to the purpose of the original thread...can someone put forth Schiff's complete thesis?

 

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Zlatko replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 4:15 PM

About the importing vs exporting deal:

There's nothing wrong with importing more than you're exporting. No value judgement can be passed on having a defecit or surplus in trade (international or personal). Net exports just means that you're adding to your cash balance while net imports means you're drawing down on your cash balance. Noone has a goal of having the highest cash balance possible for its own sake. The ultimate goal is always consumption.

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atrickpay replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 4:50 PM

Zlatko: that's pretty much the same thing I mentioned in reply to ViennaSausage. The problem has to be where the government enters the picture...

 

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Peter Schiff has made this lecture a couple of years ago where his assessment of the economy is very clear.

By the way, he is an assumed Austrian economist. With regard to investment advices on his book, he says he couldn't be specific in a long life medium like a book because of his license as a broker with some agency.

Equality before the law and material equality are not only different but are in conflict with each other; and we can achieve either one or the other, but not both at the same time. -- F. A. Hayek in The Constitution of Liberty

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atrickpay replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 5:51 PM

Blacksheep:  K, I'll check it out if you say it is a clear explanation.

Regarding his investment advice, I don't give a rat's ass about that right now. I want to comprehened this thesis first...

 

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atrickpay replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 5:52 PM

(double post)

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atrickpay replied on Tue, Jun 17 2008 5:53 PM

(triple..delete)

 

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atrickpay:
Blacksheep: K, I'll check it out if you say it is a clear explanation.

I haven't read his book, so I don't know if it is as clear as this video, or even more since the video is more limited... But, from what I remember of the video (seen the thing a while back), I thought the various concepts he presented were pretty clear. Maybe his general view was not very coherent and clear though... I guess he does go over how regulation and stuff strangled the manufacturing, but the main point I got is that the trade deficit is not viable since it's based on accumulation of debt. Maybe because he spends most of the time with metaphors and simplifications of the kind, he might not make his case too deep? (as an ignorant of economics, I can't say if he is being superficial or is there some theories he is failing to address or something...)

Equality before the law and material equality are not only different but are in conflict with each other; and we can achieve either one or the other, but not both at the same time. -- F. A. Hayek in The Constitution of Liberty

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atrickpay:

OK, but what is the problem with that?

That scenario wouldn't cause any problems if all the exchanges were completely voluntary...So in other words, how is the gov't f'n things up?

I never said that the production/consumption import/export was a problem.  I was just responding to the question of what is the main thesis of the book.

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