How deep is the trouble (France)?
Now after Greece let's have a look at France.
I now work for more then 10 years with a french programmer. And he's self employed. (but won't be that much longer we will retire).
The french government does act as the the sun's king times. The last attack was that one has to pay for the gains one have while selling houses.
Well of course inflation is not taken into account but even worse, the tax should apply to any bough house (even in the past)
So of you'd bought a house 10 years or so ago. And you would sell with a gain theese days, you won't have to pay any tax, well that was the law as you bought that house.
Now this does not hold any longer? That's brutal and disappropriation. Old contracts suddenly do not hold any more?
Another big problem the state has pension obligations and even self-employed have to pay for it. As in other countries this obligations habe to be met wit the current income. There was no
accruals for it. And well this means there is a big bureacracy in which everyone has to pay in. The buraucrats have to be paid and well maybe you get some money back. However it's getting less and less likely that they stick to these obligations.
Another point one just earns below the minimum wage in France if the gross income month is 2500 €. So well that is quite a lot of money IMHO, but you'll have to pay all the government and also a tax consultants because it's the law that every self-employeed has to be controlled. Well yes the money is gone for "nothing"..You can see the elits of France in the form of MMe Lagarde. So you can see, from there one can not expect anything.
According to some figures one quarter of all under 25 are unemploye in france. That's too much, and this will raise the possibility of violence massivly. You can see the laws in France do prevent earning an honest income for a free living. That means France is as much messed up as Greece. France will not be able to bear much more safety chutes costs. AFAIK they decided for a new "credit" facility named ESM which will just send us down the drain faster.
So currently I'd think the risks for a bankrupt are roughly in that order:
1) Greece (they are bankrupt)
2) Italy (
3) France, Spain
I guess Germany will fall short after either Italy or France.... In fact it seems the ponzi scheme comes to an end. I do not think it will took much more than a decade to probably the biggest fall in history.
I think I will have to adjust my predictions or add a few other points to it.
All in all one can say devastating....