dget : Ron Paul

Ron Paul Demonstrates Unreliability of Political Polling

dget — Mon, 12 Nov 2007 18:32:00 GMT

For those following the presidential campaign of Texas Congressman Ron Paul there is little questioning his status as a top-tier candidate. Evidence supporting this conclusion is constantly growing, and after this past week’s events even the main stream media is beginning to recognize what Paul’s supporters have known for quite some time.

The historic week began for Paul this previous Monday, when the ten-term Congressman raised over $4.3 million in contributions in a single twenty-four hour period. The donations, collected entirely through the campaign’s website, came from over 35,000 supporters, 17,000 of which donated to the campaign for the first time.

This display of support would then be echoed six days later at a rally held at Philadelphia’s Independence Mall that drew over 5,000 supporters in a celebration centered on Veteran’s Day and the candidate known for his uncompromising support of Constitutional principles and the ideas of liberty upon which the country was founded.

And these two astonishing events are only the most recent accolades for Paul, who is commonly referred to as a long shot by popular media outlets. His supporters have, for example, formed over 1,100 meetup groups throughout the country with over 61,000 volunteers. Paul’s YouTube channel has over 36,000 subscribers, and his videos have generated an amazing 6 million views. And Paul’s website, according to Alexa statistics, receives more hits than all of the other candidates for President combined – in both parties.

All of this support, however, does not seem to translate to success in the national telephone polls so commonly cited in discussions of campaign success. And while Paul has been climbing in these polls, he still stands around 5 or 6%, placing him fifth behind candidates more frequently touted by the media.

But these figures might have more to do with the way polls are taken than the actual amount of supporters Paul has amassed throughout the country. The polls, for example, generally exclude cellular telephone numbers, discounting the young and the generally affluent segments of the population.

The polls also tend to focus solely on people who have voted in previous party primaries, which would exclude moderates who don’t affiliate themselves with a particular party, as well as those who haven’t voted in the past or tend to vote independent.

There is no questioning at this point that Ron Paul is a candidate with a legitimate chance of securing the Republican Party nomination, regardless of his relatively low polling figures. To understand this one simply needs to look beyond these figures to find the strongest example of grassroots support ever demonstrated in US politics.

And for those unwilling to see the signs behind the polls, there may be a big surprise awaiting them when the early primary states begin to release data representing a Ron Paul popularity already visible to those willing to look.

Did Ben Bernanke really just say that?

dget — Sat, 10 Nov 2007 02:34:00 GMT

While addressing the House Financial Services Committee recently Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said something quite astonishing. Responding to an absolute drilling from Representative Ron Paul, Bernanke claimed that the devaluation of the dollar will not affect the purchasing power of the dollar assuming the dollar is being spent in domestic markets. To quote the Chairman:

“If somebody has their wealth in dollars, and they’re going to buy their consumer goods in dollars, and it’s a typical American, than the decline in the dollar, the only effect it has on their buying power is it makes imported goods more expensive.”

Let’s analyze this comment for a moment. First, this seems to dismiss the fact that a substantial percentage of consumer goods are indeed imports. The devaluation of the dollar will necessarily increase the cost of those items to end-user consumers, which will assuredly have an impact on all rungs of society.

But what of the domestically produced items that Mr. Bernanke claims will not become more expensive in real terms? Indeed, assuming these products compete with foreign produced goods, they absolutely will increase in price. And to come to this conclusion, one needs only access a few very basic economic assumptions.

Consider first, as an example, the case of China and the repetitive devaluation of the Chinese yuan as a means of increasing export sales. The policy artificially reduces the value of the Chinese currency as a method of ensuring reduced prices for Chinese goods abroad. China uses this policy to prop up their labor market and reduce unemployment in their massive work force. Unfortunately, the policy creates an inverse effect for foreign imports, as the yuan has a reduced value on the global market.

The next and very easy step in logic, then, is that domestic suppliers are afforded an advantage in competition, as they are not subjected to the detrimental exchange rates imposed on the foreign producers. Let us now return to the present situation in the United States.

As has been noted, the devaluation of the dollar, much like with the yuan, will produce a situation wherein domestic suppliers now have an economic advantage against foreign suppliers. Is it likely, then, that those domestic suppliers will simply maintain their prices and reap a nominal increase in sales? Clearly, as even a very limited understanding of supply curves suggests, this will not be the outcome. Instead, on an aggregate level, the supply curve will shift to the left, resulting in an overall increase in prices on the market.

Ultimately, then, we can see a subsidization effect taking place. But where do the subsidization dollars come from? The answer is from the holder of the American Dollar through the indirect tax that is inflation. Let me restate this in other terms. Every inflationary move utilized by the Federal Reserve equates in to an indirect tax on American citizens through a devaluing of the legally stipulated domestic currency.

How, then, can Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, possibly claim that the expansionary policies utilized by the Fed to prop up the economy will not have a meaningful effect on the average American? Well, he’s either lying through his teeth, or he fails to grasp some quite basic economic assumptions. Frankly, I’m not sure which would be worse.

You can watch a video of the exchange between Congressman Paul and Chairman Bernanke here.

Neoconservative Propaganda

dget — Tue, 30 Oct 2007 22:23:00 GMT

Has propaganda ever been used so blatantly as it’s being used now by neoconservatives in their advocacy of US intervention in the Middle East? Here’s a sampling from a recent email conversation I had:

The fight against the Middle Eastern terrorists is in fact a fight against Islamofascists! Now, an educated person understands that a fascist is one who advocates subordination of the individual to the state. People who advocate violence against the US based on strict interpretations of the Qur’an, then, would not be fascists. By definition they might be fanatics or fundamentalists (or freedom fighters if you go back far enough in the CIA’s paperwork). But the terms fanatic and fundamentalist conger images of small sects of individuals, and that just won’t suffice. The term fascist on the other hand stirs up memories of WWII and Nazi Germany. Much more powerful rhetoric, indeed.

But haven’t you heard, this is a world war! Thank you Mr. Podhoretz. Without your analytical acumen the world would have completely missed the fact that we are indeed involved in World War IV. Yes, there’s only one theatre. And yes, there’s really only one legitimate aggressor. And yes the great enemy actually isn't a government. But if the Cold War was actually WWIII, how could this not be regarded as WWIV? Wait, the cold war was WWIII? That doesn’t make sense either… And this Podhoretz guy is advising the Giuliani campaign on Foreign policy issues? Yikes.

Fine, but without preemptive strikes our nation is at risk! Well, these countries have no navies and no air forces, but I will admit that it’s possible that some time in the future they might be able to produce some variety of nuclear payload… And I’ll further admit that there’s some chance that if they do actually produce a nuclear device that they might be able to develop the ballistic capabilities of delivering onto US soil. I guess that’s kind of a risk… Sort of.

Whew… Would I be propagandizing if I mentioned Joseph Goebbels at this point? But really, how do these guys come up with this stuff? I have to imagine that this variety of pablum contributed to the results of a recent Zogby poll, which stated that 52% of likely voters "would support a U.S. military strike to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon.” Good thing these polls are so worthless, and that Americans are smart enough to see through this propaganda, or we might be looking at another $2.4 trillion lesson in futility.

Vote Ron Paul!

Honorable mentions in the neoconservative propaganda category:

To advocate withdraw is to desire defeat.
To disagree with Middle East intervention is to disagree with US involvement in WWII.
Advocating withdraw is a betrayal to the troops.
Not believing in the Iraq war is a liberal position.