The Motorama Dystopia.

Back in the 1950s and 60s we were promised a highway utopia that never seemed to come about. There still aren't flying cars in every garage among other things. Today's driving future seems to be in the other direction as the nationalization or at the very least a bailout (with strings) of the domestic auto manufacturers looms as a real possibility.

Like all things that government touches the roads are sub-optimal and political concerns trump those of making a system function well. Nothing says this best than the way driver training in the US is conducted. It's emphasis on learning details of the DUI laws and following the law over common sense show in no uncertain terms that politics is their most important priority. Instead of building solid long lasting roads we get roads that are in need of constant repair to make work for politically connected contractors. Instead of longer yellow signals for safety we get shorter ones with red light cameras that make money for government and its contractors at our expense. Time and time again we get 'solutions' that are good for the government and those connected to it but do little to improve the situation on the nation's roads.

The solutions being proposed today and may be favored by an Obama administration fit the same mold. The congestion tax is the current hot new thing since London put it in. Studies have shown that the congestion tax has been a failure with regards to the goal of reducing congestion but that hasn't stopped governments around the world from wanting to implement their own version. What has this form of taxation done? It has allowed governments to log where people drive. It has allowed government to set up the mechanisms of granting people permission to drive into a congestion-taxed area. The same mechanisms by which one pays their congestion tax ahead of time would work well to grant or deny permission. Most of all it has increased the amount of money the government takes from the people. Last but not least of course is the money to run the system that is paid to a contractor with the usual connections.

In Illinois and other states the political class is also enamored with the idea of special lanes that require a larger toll be paid or that one have government permission to use them. In the name of reducing congestion government will block off lanes from the common people and then only allow those with special permits use them. These permits are issued when people fit a criteria set by government. First and foremost the political class is allowed to use the reserved lanes. It doesn't matter what they drive, just being a member of the political class is enough. In some implementations all that is needed is to be wealthy enough to pay the fees. But in this era of taxing by transponder those connected to the government often use the privilege to get a free ride with special transponders. The last group to be allowed in the special lanes will be those who fit the correct political image. Those who carpool and those who drive approved 'green' vehicles. Sadly I doubt my 12 year old V8 pony car will qualify despite the fact that keeping a car, any car a long time is far more green (because of the resources required to build a car) than any electric or hybrid.  Instead those that want to tell us what to do would prefer to crush old cars.

Another new hotness is to tax by the mile. This scheme usually requires some sort of transponder to keep track of when and where people drive. Especially true when it is combined with a congestion charge. Government cites the falling fuel tax revenues with fuel-efficient cars and people driving less. The very things it was trying to promote are now the reason they have to find a new intrusive way of taxing us. They have not even considered ending their diversions of present road funds to make up for the lower income. The federal government and others are still able to squander significant amounts of money on police check points, studies on how to monitor us more, forest preserve paths and other non-road building activities.

One thing that did not go away was the idea of a computer controlled automated highway system. The government and others are still very much interested in these systems. However, I don't think it will shape up to be the 100+mph system envisioned decades ago. Rather I see it to be a system where we will have to have permission to go from A to B and then be forced by machine to do it as the government allows. Politically we will be stuck going no faster than 55mph. Priority will be given to those who have political favor. The ruling class will have all sorts of special privileges as the technology makes it possible those in power will use it to their benefit and to reward those who help them while the rest of suffer in even greater congestion and have less freedom to travel.

Many nations sought to tax ordinary people into tiny dull vehicles by huge fuel taxes. This taxation left people who could afford it or who would drive less to still be free to buy whatever vehicles they liked. The US government was not going to make that mistake. It instituted Corporate Average Fuel Economy to try and force the auto manufacturers to simply not build the cars the government thought we shouldn't have.  The CAFE requirements killed off most performance cars for more than a decade. CAFE resulted in the end of almost all the large passenger cars in the mid-1980s. Station wagons and most big affordable sedans vanished as choices. All that remained were a few luxury models and those models favored by government as vehicles for its police forces. The market however isn't so easily beaten. People didn't shift in their tastes, so they bought the next best thing, the passenger truck. These passenger trucks were made as far back as the late 1940s for a niche market. In the late 80s they began to leave the niche. The automakers responded and the SUV trend was born. Now instead of passenger cars that could get 20+mpg, people were driving trucks that got 15mpg. Government intervention at its finest.

Not only did CAFE backfire on its goal, it created market distortions that are now once again leaving the domestic automakers in a very bad situation as their most profitable products are no longer desired by the buying public the way they had been. While many blame the decisions of executives for the mess they are in and it is ultimately their fault, there are a variety of conditions they made their decisions under. These conditions all go back to government interference in the market, the products we can buy, the rate they had pay to for labor, the situation with health care, and many other things.

The conditions of the three largest US automobile manufacturers is so bad this time around that there is talk of bailouts and nationalizing them. Once nationalized the government will be free to tell us what to drive. All it would need to do is tax or ban imports to prevent us from choosing something else. The protectionism is nothing new for the political class to dream up. Even if imports try to increase their manufacturing in the USA the government will likely act to stop them or nationalize their facilities as well. These cars that are approved for us by the political class will be as bad as anything the Soviet Union, East Germany, or any government ever dreamed up. Meanwhile the political class will import their cars from some other nation.

The market reaction to government's politically driven car design will be the growth of something that would resemble Cuba. The rebuilding of existing cars will become very popular. The market (if it is not totally killed by government force) will drive people to find efficient and cost-effective ways to restore automobiles to showroom condition or better.  Salvage yards will become places where every existing car that can be saved will be saved. All those that can't will be dismantled for valuable parts. Some companies will offer enough new parts to practically build an old car from a VIN number alone. The market will make it so that for about the same price as a new government designed car, one could step into a showroom new car from some past era.

The government in turn will try to create scrappage laws and making used parts illegal. It will levy special taxes or outright prohibit the manufacture of parts for older cars. It will try to force people into new government cars all while saying it is for the environment. Their attacks on the older cars will have nothing to do with the environment. Saving the older cars is far greener than building new ones as it takes much less material and energy. Government's actual goals will remain as they always have, simply to run our lives.

Eventually only the approved government cars will be allowed on the automated or number plate scanned roads. The good roads will be empty of traffic. The only ones driving on them will be the politically approved. It will be much like what has already been achieved in communist nations past and present. The rest of us will be driving on potholed local roads if we are driving at all.

Police officers or the government's machines will ticket for everything and anything. They will rig the system to create more tickets to steal from motorists. Speed cameras, red light cameras, stop sign cameras, and even tire tread depth detectors will continue to rake in the cash. The number plate cameras and tracking devices will make sure tolls and taxes are paid. If any of these machines have a problem, motorists will be stuck paying the fines and penalties anyway.

On top of all of this, the government will take ideas from various lobbies and do gooder groups that have their own agendas. For instance with the influence of MADD we would be sure to see a breathalyzer interlock in every car. Technology will be used in every turn to serve those who wish to have power over society.

Instead of the heated roads that would always make it a perfect day for driving and low costs we will get a nightmare of controls on our daily travels. High costs, endless congestion, poorer roads, fuel shortages, poorly made vehicles, government monitoring, and much more that will make today's public transportation look good. By then mass transit will be even worse than it is today. This is because the method of encouraging transit usage has been to make driving worse and then cutting mass transit service while increasing the tax dollars going to it.

Some may find such a nightmare to be impossible, but from the Claybrookian thought that has dominated Washington DC since the 1970s this is where we would end up should the get the power and implement the technology. Will it happen? I do not know. I know it could happen. All the pieces are on the board right now. Until they are swept from the board as the wrong-headed ideas they are the possibility of this nightmare or at the very least significant parts of it will continue to exist.